Photo courtesy of Lou Murray
We have just one week left in the MHSAA football regular season, with games kicking off on Friday night. For many, their playoff berths are on the line, with a win absolutely necessary. For others, they are jockeying for seeding, trying to get a home game in the first round. And finally, for others, the Seniors will simply put on the pads for the final time, trying to end their career with a fun and some fun memories.
Before the action Friday, check out the playoff picture for your favorite team below! For current 8.5 “Favorites Win” projections, check out Snooze2You.com! Snooze will also have his bracket projections Sunday before the selection show.
Note that the announcement of the qualifiers and first-round pairings for both the 11 and 8-player playoffs will take place at 5 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 26, on the “Selection Sunday Show” on the NFHS Network at https://www.nfhsnetwork.com/events/mhsaa-mi/evtddee977bb8. A link to watch also is posted to the football page of the MHSAA Website at https://www.mhsaa.com/sports/football. A subscription is not required to watch the Selection Sunday Show.
LOCK – In the postseason regardless of Week 9
ALMOST LOCK – With a loss in Week 9, still almost certainly in
BUBBLE IN – Currently in, but still need to win to lock it in
BUBBLE OUT – Currently out, but with a win, they have a chance to get in
OUT – Their season will end on Friday
CSAA
LOCK: Big Rapids (4), Kent City (6), Reed City (6), Tri-County (5)
ALMOST LOCK: Central Montcalm (6)
BUBBLE OUT: Morley-Stanwood (7)
OUT: Chippewa Hills, Grant, Lakeview, Newaygo, White Cloud
There is a huge game on Friday between Central Montcalm and Hart. If the Hornets win, they are certainly in. If they lose, they will be sweating it out watching the scoreboards as the results across the state will determine their fate. For Morley-Stanwood, a win over LeRoy Pine River likely gets them in the playoffs, while a loss will end their season.
OK BLACK
LOCK: East Grand Rapids (3), GR Catholic Central (5), Middleville (3)
BUBBLE IN: Northview (2)
BUBBLE OUT: Holland Christian (4)
OUT: Ottawa Hills
The Maroons will face parochial rival Grand Rapids Christian with their playoff fates on the line. A win, and they’re certainly in, while a loss ends their season. Northview also faces this do-or-die scenario against Forest Hills Northern (3-5). The Wildcats have very small odds to play next week if they lose Friday.
OK GOLD
LOCK: South Christian (4), Unity Christian (4), Zeeland East (3), Zeeland West (3)
OUT: Forest Hills Central (3), Wyoming (2)
Nothing but pride or bragging rights on the line with OK Gold teams this week. Their fates are certain and set, with four teams playing in the postseason.
OK GREEN
LOCK: Byron Center (2), Muskegon (2)
ALMOST LOCK: Mona Shores (2)
OUT: Forest Hills Northern, GR Union, Reeths-Puffer
The OK Green is also almost set in stone, with a slight potential for Mona Shores to slide out of the postseason picture with a loss to Toledo Central Catholic (5-4). However, the projections find a somewhat favorable cushion for them even in defeat.
OK RED
LOCK: East Kentwood (1), Grandville (1), Hudsonville (1), Rockford (1)
BUBBLE IN: Jenison (1)
BUBBLE OUT: Caledonia (1)
OUT: Grand Haven, West Ottawa
Caledonia and Jenison face off in a game with serious playoff implications. With a win, Jenison is in. With a loss, the ‘Cats are projected to finish 32nd, so there will be some scoreboard watching to ensure they stay inside the top 32. Caledonia is projected to finish 33rd with a victory, so they would need to win and get some help to qualify for the playoffs.
OK SILVER
LOCK: Belding (6), Godwin Heights (4)
BUBBLE IN: Hopkins (5), Kelloggsville (5)
BUBBLE OUT: Fruitport (3)
OUT: Comstock Park, Holland
A pivotal game takes place between Fruitport and Hopkins. If the Vikings win, they are not only in, but are going to be in the conversation for a home game. They also will logjam the D5 teams in West Michigan and possibly create some bracket chaos. For Fruitport, if they win, they are projected to narrowly miss the playoffs, so they will need some statewide upsets to sneak in (#34, -1 point in the “favorites win” model). Kelloggsville takes on Holland (2-6), and they need to win to qualify for the playoffs for the first time since 2020 (2017 if counting non-COVID).
OK WHITE
LOCK: GR Christian (4), West Catholic (5)
ALMOST LOCK: Spring Lake (4)
BUBBLE OUT: Forest Hills Eastern (4)
OUT: Hamilton, Wayland
The Lakers take on Allendale (1-7), and even with a loss, they are projected to have a bit of a cushion to ensure their postseason participation. On the other hand, FHE is likely unable to make up the margin necessary to qualify even with a win over Reeths-Puffer (2-6). They will need several upsets to slide into the playoffs, as the “favorites win” model leaves them about 3.9 points shy (#36).
RCA
LOCK: Cedar Springs (3), Kenowa Hills (3), Lowell (3)
ALMOST LOCK: Coopersville (3)
BUBBLE OUT: Sparta (4)
OUT: Allendale, Greenville
Coopersville faces Cedar Springs (7-1) in Week 9. Even with a loss, they are projected to have about a 1-point cushion to qualify. Barring several other unforeseen upsets, they should be playing next week. Sparta is expected to lose against Kenowa Hills (7-1), but should they spring the upset, the math leaves them 0.46 points short of reaching the playoffs. With an upset or two, they could still qualify for the postseason.
WMC
LOCK: Ludington (4), North Muskegon (7), Whitehall (5)
ALMOST LOCK: Montague (6), Oakridge (5), Ravenna (7)
BUBBLE IN: Shelby (7)
BUBBLE OUT: Hart (6), Manistee (6), Mason County Central (6), Orchard View (5)
OUT: Fremont, Hesperia
The WMC’s best three teams are headed to the playoffs. It is almost certain that Oakridge, Montague and Ravenna will also play next week, though Montague is probably sweating a loss the most, as that would place them 31st in a “favorites win” model. Their two-point projected margin should be enough to keep them in the picture regardless. Shelby faces a play-in-game scenario against Orchard View (4-4). The Tigers are in if they beat the Cardinals. OV on the other hand, not only needs to beat Shelby, but probably need some help to get into the top 32. Hart is also in a play-in scenario, as a win over Central Montcalm likely secures their bid, but with only a +1.0 margin, so there is a remote possibility that they would finish say 33rd or 34th. Manistee and Mason County Central square off in a game where the loser is certainly eliminated, but the winner, especially if it’s MCC, will need a few upsets to sneak into the playoff picture (MCC projected 34th with a win (-1.4 points), Manistee projected 35th (-2.5 points)).
OTHER TEAMS
LOCK: Frankenmuth (5), Freeland (4), Hastings (3), Lawton (7)
ALMOST LOCK: Kalamazoo United (5)
BUBBLE OUT: Alma (5), Kalamazoo Central (1), Muskegon Catholic Central (8), Stevensville Lakeshore (3)
OUT: Elk Rapids, Maple Valley
There are several key games on the fringes of our coverage area. Alma is extremely unlikely to defeat Big Rapids (7-1), but if they can pull off the upset, they will earn enough points to be in consideration for the final spots in D5. Kalamazoo Central plays Loy Norrix (3-5), and they are in a win-or-go-home scenario. A win by the Maroon Giants would add another Westside team to Division 1, which certainly impacts the OK Red teams in the field. Muskegon Catholic Central, despite their 3-5 record, is in the postseason with a win over Buchanan (5-3). If they lose this game, they will miss the postseason for the second straight year for the first time since 2003-04. Stevensville Lakeshore could also make the postseason with 4 wins if they can best Portage Northern (6-2), though their fate will also rely on statewide scores.
8-MAN
LOCK: Gobles (1), Grand Rapids Sacred Heart (2), Martin (1), Mendon (2)
BUBBLE IN: Newberry (16)
BUBBLE OUT: Brethren (2), Concord (1), Marcellus (1)
OUT: Eau Claire, Holton, Lawrence, Muskegon Heights
The Newberry Indians are currently the last team in the field. They need to beat Rudyard (2-6) to stay in the postseason mix. Marcellus (#17) and Concord (#18) are right on their tails, and would possibly be able to flip their positioning with wins over Bangor (2-6) and Bellevue (3-5) respectively. Brethren likely does not have the ability to climb the D2 ladder without major chaos, starting first with an upset of GR Sacred Heart (7-1).
